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REGIONAL INTERDEPENDENCIES AND CROSS-BORDER DYNAMICS: ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UZBEKISTAN’S TOURISM SECTOR

Abstract

This study investigates the extent to which Uzbekistan’s tourism sector is shaped by regional interdependencies with its five neighboring countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. Drawing on annual data from 2010 to 2024, the research employs a mixed-method design that integrates panel regression analysis with qualitative policy review. Quantitative findings reveal that cross-border trade intensity, visa liberalization, transport connectivity, and formal tourism cooperation have a statistically significant positive impact on inbound tourist arrivals to Uzbekistan, while exchange-rate volatility exerts a mild negative effect. The results confirm the existence of a gravity-type spillover mechanism in Central Asia’s tourism network, suggesting that stronger regional linkages enhance collective competitiveness. Qualitative insights further indicate that policy coordination and infrastructure harmonization remain key to converting geographic proximity into sustainable growth. The study contributes to the literature by providing one of the first empirical models quantifying cross-border tourism effects in Central Asia and offers actionable recommendations for developing joint visa schemes, integrated transport corridors, and regional branding strategies that align with UNWTO and SDG 8.9 priorities.

Keywords

Regional interdependencies, Cross-border tourism, Central Asia, Uzbekistan, Tourism cooperation, Panel regression, Sustainable tourism policy

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References

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