THE IMPACT OF DEBT, INVESTMENT, AND CAPITAL FORMATION ON EXPORT GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIAN ECONOMIES
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation, and total debt service on the export performance of five Central Asian economies—Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—over the period from 1992 to 2023. Using panel data obtained from the World Bank, we apply econometric techniques to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between these macroeconomic variables and exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP. The analysis reveals significant interactions between investment inflows, debt levels, and capital formation with export performance, highlighting the complex dynamics that shape trade capacity in the region. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to improve export competitiveness and ensure sustainable economic development through strategic investment and debt management.
Keywords
Export performance, Central Asia, external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI), capital formation, total debt service, panel data analysis.3
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